Happy Selection Sunday. This is this biggest day of the year for Bracketologist’s like me, as months of hard work pay off today when we submit our final Bracketology updates and wait to see how well we did. As for the teams involved, most know whether they will be dancing or not; though a few bubble teams still don’t.
This will be the final seeding breakdown of the season. This will be formatted seed by seed, looking at the at-large first, then discussing why each team is seeded where they are. After that, I will look at each projected conference champion and what seed they would get in the NCAA Tournament. Finally, I will give you what my current Bracketology would look like if today was Selection Sunday (which it is!). Without any further introduction, let us get into the final seeding breakdown of the season.
Duke: Duke is my top overall seed heading into Selection Sunday. The Blue Devils had been playing without Zion Williamson, struggling without him. But with him back in the lineup, they went out and won the ACC Tournament. Their resume as a whole warrants a one seed, and with the committee likely discounting a few of their losses, the number one overall seed is almost certainly theirs.
Virginia: Virginia had locked up a one seed coming into the week. Even a loss to Florida State won’t move them from there. Duke does pass them for the number one overall seed, based on the results listed above, but they still will be a one seed in the South Region, which isn’t bad either.
Tennessee: Tennessee moves up to a one seed after beating Kentucky. The Voles broke the series tie against Kentucky. They have 7 Quadrant 1A wins, helping them move to the one line. If you think they could move down with a loss to Auburn in the SEC Championship game, think again, as the committee is well known to not change seeding based on Sunday results.
Gonzaga: Gonzaga remains on the one line in large part due to the fact that they still have the number two ranking in the NET rankings, while having the only win over Duke when they were completely healthy. I think North Carolina and Kentucky do have more meat on their resumes, but I think the committee winds up giving the Bulldogs a one seed anyway.
Kentucky: The Wildcats land on the two line. Frankly, I think they are fine with it, when looking at Kentucky fans, they would rather play in Louisville than be a one seed. Moreover, they are almost certainly going to play in Louisville as a two seed. The Wildcats resume features 10 Quadrant one wins and 6 Quadrant two wins. The real issue is that head to head. Tennessee beat them in two out of the three games they played.
North Carolina: The Tar Heels resume is really good and I think potentially worthy of a one seed. The thing that holds them back is that it is not better than Virginia’s and Duke’s — two teams that are seeded in front of them. The problem is that the committee is unlikely to put three teams from the same conference on the one line. I’m not saying it won’t happen, but it is unlikely.
Michigan State: The Spartans have 12 Quadrant one wins, which is the most in the sport. However, that won’t be good enough to get them a one seed for two reasons. One, their conference Championship game against Michigan is played on Sunday, and as I will repeat, Sunday games don’t count. The other reason is because they are the only team in contention for a one seed that has two Quadrant three losses.
Michigan: At the beginning of the week, the Wolverines spot on the two line was theirs to lose. Since then, they advanced to the Big Ten Championship, while other contenders lost early. The only team that could be a two seed in front of them is Houston, but there’s a very small chance that happens.
Houston: The Cougars advanced to the AAC Championship game, which is what they needed to do to lock up a three seed. The Cougars reasonably have an argument for a two seed, but with the way they handled the Cougars in the Bracket Preview, I highly doubt they get a two seed.
Texas Tech: The Red Raiders lost early against West Virginia, but with not enough teams stepping up and taking a three seed from them, they enter into the Selection Show as a three seed.
LSU: The Tigers lost early in the SEC Tournament to an average Florida team, which prevented them from challenging for a two seed. Even then, their resume overall is really good and well worth giving them a three seed, even with potential coaching questions.
Florida State: The Seminoles made a move onto the four line with a great performance this week, as they beat Virginia and Virginia Tech this week. With six Quadrant 1A wins, this team is almost certainly going to be on the three line.
Purdue: The Boilermakers dropped down to a four seed this week, as they lost early in the Big Ten Tournament. Of the teams competing for a three seed, they have the least amount of wins against Quadrant one opponents, plus they have more losses than Florida State who is the team directly in front of them. Speaking of Florida State, the Seminoles beat Purdue back in early December, which could serve as a tiebreaker for the two teams.
Kansas: The Jayhawks played well this week making it to the Big 12 Championship game. They don’t pass the eye test as being a Top-4 seed, but a team with 11 Quadrant one wins won’t possibly be lower than a four seed.
Wisconsin: The Badgers resume features 10 Quadrant one wins, which on the surface is pretty good but diving in deeper, only one qualifies under the Quadrant 1A category. The Badgers still are probably a four seed but they could slip to a five.
Kansas State: The final four seed came down to Kansas State and Villanova, but the big determinant for the Wildcats getting the nod was the fact that Kansas State has four more Quadrant 1A wins than Villanova. When comparing teams resumes, that is hard to ignore.
Villanova: The Wildcats missed out on a four seed for reasons explained above, but they still are a five seed. The Wildcats 5 Quadrant one wins and 13 Quadrant two wins are a big reason why that is the case.
Virginia Tech: The Hokies don’t have as many Quadrant one wins as you would expect but a good record and a NET ranking of 11 will help lift them over other teams in position for a five seed.
Marquette: The Golden Eagles resume features 10 Quadrant one wins, along with 6 Quadrant two wins. They struggled down the stretch, which probably cost them a four seed but they still land comfortably on the five line.
Iowa State: The Cyclones moved up onto the five line thanks to a Big 12 Tournament Championship. The Cyclones picked up wins over Baylor, Kansas State, and Kansas in the process, which leaves them with 8 Quadrant one wins, including six Quadrant 1A wins.
Mississippi State: the Bulldogs didn’t do much on Championship Week losing to Tennessee in the opening round of the SEC Tournament, which helped them get hopped on the five line by Iowa State. Their resume features eight Quadrant one wins keeps them on the six line but nothing else on their resume is that great.
Auburn: The Tigers have done well thus far in the SEC Tournament, as they have moved into the SEC Championship game. That being said, they only picked up one Quadrant one win in the process, which doesn’t help their resume. This probably means that they will stay on the six line, unless they beat Tennessee today and the committee decides that is good enough to get them on the five line, which is very unlikely.
Maryland: The Terrapins are the last team in this tier of teams with decent quality wins, as it falls off after this. The Terrapins resume features 6 Quadrant one wins, which is good and it probably helps them stay on the six line despite an early loss to Nebraska in the Big Ten Tournament.
Buffalo: The Bulls are my final six seed, their resume isn’t necessarily spectacular but they are 29-3, which is better than everyone else at this point of the Bracket. Furthermore, the Bulls scheduled well and won two of three games on the road against Power-6 teams. Winning those games, as well as their record should be rewarded with a six seed.
Louisville: The Cardinals have too many losses to be put ahead of Buffalo, however, it is fine for the seven line. The Cardinals were able to play one of the toughest schedules in the country and in the process picked up 3 Quadrant 1A wins. That should help them be either a 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Cincinnati: The Bearcats have been really good this year, as they went 26-6 on the season, which included 4 Quadrant one wins, the problem is that those wins came against the four worst teams they played against in the Quadrant one category.
Wofford: The Terriers have a resume that is pretty good, as they are 26-4 with three Quadrant one wins. Their only losses came to teams in Quadrant 1A, which is a good way to lose. I think this resume should pretty clearly help them avoid a second-round matchup with a one seed.
Nevada: Let me start off by saying, I hate this resume, they have one Quadrant one win and that is hardly one either, as Utah State could just as easily be ranked one spot lower at 31 in the NET and it wouldn’t be a Quadrant one win. This resume isn’t good, but the committee set a precedent back in February that the Nevada resume will be given a slight break, so a seven seed is what I think they end up with.
Seton Hall: The Pirates surged in the late season and went from a bubble team to a for sure tournament team. The Pirates now own 7 Quadrant one wins and 7 Quadrant two wins and if their NET ranking was in the Top-50 they would be a seven seed for sure.
Ole Miss: The Rebels resume is pretty solid, they have a decent NET ranking, 4 Quadrant one wins, including 2 Quadrant 1A wins. Nothing is that spectacular but it does warrant a single-digit seed.
Minnesota: The Gophers resume wasn’t that great until a recent surge that saw them pick up two wins over Purdue. Now with 3 Quadrant 1A wins, 5 total Quadrant one wins and 7 Quadrant two wins, their resume is filled and worthy of a single-digit seed.
Oklahoma: The Sooners have been knocked due to their 7-11 conference record, however, they still are probably in the field safely as a single-digit seed due to their great schedule. The Sooners played no Quadrant four opponents and they were able to pick up 4 Quadrant one wins, which will help with their seeding.
Iowa: Iowa is another team that is hard to judge, they have been playing really bad but have a good resume with 4 Quadrant one wins. I think they get placed in an 8/9 game in the end.
UCF: UCF has a good record, with only one bad loss, combined with one of the best wins on the season when they won at Houston. I think they end up on the nine line, although with a good NET ranking an eight isn’t out of the question.
Utah State: Utah State won the Mountain West this year while picking up 3 Quadrant one wins and not having a Sub-100 loss. This Aggies team will get either a 9 or a 10 seed, I think 9 is more likely though.
Baylor: Baylor is a team with some pretty good wins, along with some pretty bad losses, which makes them hard to seed. Overall they have 4 Quadrant 1 wins, 3 of which are classified under the Quadrant 1A category. They also have 2 Quadrant 4 losses, which isn’t ideal. I think they probably give the Bears a nine seed, although a ten seed isn’t out of the question.
Syracuse: The Orange were close to Baylor in terms of getting a nine seed, but one thing that dropped them down was the fact that they only have one Quadrant 1A win and they have three Quadrant three losses.
TCU: The Horned Frogs have an okay resume, which gets you into the field comfortably this year. The Horned Frogs have 3 Quadrant one wins, including two Quadrant 1A wins, and they have no bad losses either.
Florida: The Gators have 15 losses, which isn’t ideal but with only two Quadrant three losses and two wins over LSU, this team still should be dancing and avoiding Dayton in the process.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes are avoiding Dayton in large part due to the fact they have four Quadrant one wins and only one Quadrant three losses, a 5-7 road record in beneficial as well.
VCU: The Rams are a good team but they don’t have a great resume, which is why they likely land on the eleven line. This team still gets in but with the majority of their games coming from Quadrants 3 and 4, they shouldn’t feel safe.
St. Mary’s: The Gaels have been left out in the past after not winning the West Coast Conference Tournament, so they decided to beat Gonzaga and avoid being left out this year.
Temple (Last Four In): The Owls make it into the field of 68 due to the fact that they have a good record, a signature win over Houston, and an 8-5 road record. All those things should get the Owls into the NCAA Tournament field.
St. John’s (Last Four In): The Red Storm aren’t the best team in the world, but they do have some quality wins, as they have beaten Marquette twice, VCU, and Villanova. Their NET ranking isn’t great at all, which could hurt the Red Storm, and have two Quadrant three losses. I think their wins probably get them in but it’s not crazy to leave them out.
Washington (Last Four In): The Huskies have fallen off late in the season, which drops them to the last four in that category. I do think their record probably gets them into the NCAA Tournament field.
Indiana (Last Four In): The Hoosiers were battling Arizona State and NC State for the last spot in the field. I went with the Hoosiers because they have a tough schedule, great wins, as they have 6 Quadrant one wins, and they don’t have any bad losses. The other two teams that they were competing with didn’t fill that category.
*Name Bold if the team has won conference Championship
New Mexico State
Prairie View A&M
North Dakota State
North Carolina Central
|East Region (Washington DC)||South Region (Louisville)|
|1.Duke (Columbia)||1.Virginia (Columbus)|
|16.North Dakota State/ Prairie View A&M||16.Iona|
|4.Kansas State (San Jose)||4.Wisconsin (Salt Lake City)|
|12.New Mexico State||12.Oregon|
|3.LSU (Des Moines)||3.Texas Tech (Tulsa)|
|14.St. Louis||14.Georgia State|
|11.Washington/ Indiana||11.St. Mary’s|
|2.Michigan State (Hartford)||2.Kentucky (Columbus)|
|West Region (Anaheim)||Midwest Region (Kansas City)|
|1.Gonzaga (San Jose)||1.Tennessee (Columbia)|
|16.Fairleigh Dickinson/ North Carolina Central||16.Gardner-Webb|
|4.Kansas (Des Moines)||4.Purdue (Salt Lake City)|
|5.Virginia Tech||5.Iowa State|
|3.Florida State (Jacksonville)||3.Houston (Tulsa)|
|14.Old Dominion||14.Northern Kentucky|
|11.Temple/ St. John’s||11.VCU|
|2.Michigan (Hartford)||2.North Carolina (Jacksonville)|
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